FAA Report Concludes LightSquared Costs Aviation Community $70B and adds 30 million Tons of CO2
An FAA report leaked to the press concluded that the deployment of the LightSquared broadband communications system will cost the aviation community $70B and add 30 million tons of CO2 to the atmosphere. There are really no surprises in this report. The impact to GPS receivers by signals such as LightSquared is relatively easy to predict, but the more relevant situation this report brings to light is the conflicting policies that overlay spectrum licensing. On one hand, we have a National Space Policy that says we must lead in the area of space-based navigation and timing; while on the other hand, we have a national broadband plan that states we must provide broadband access to larger segments of the U.S. Furthermore, we have spectrum policy that states that the FCC regulations that do not provide protection for manufacturers that build sub-performing receivers, and licenses spectrum users on this basis.
Spectrum fights are nothing new, but what is new are the economic stakes. Never before has the U.S. had to contend with so many dependent upon the electromagnetic spectrum. Historical spectrum management has relied on the “everyone gets their slice, and please play nice” policy. That meant that users licensed to operate within a given spectrum were granted access to that spectrum provided that they stayed within their technical requirements and did not interfere with other users (adjacent or otherwise). That policy appears to assume that there is sufficient time and capital for existing users of the spectrum to upgrade or accommodate new uses of the spectrum. However, demand for spectrum is exceeding the ability and capital to upgrade existing systems (especially when many of the existing users of this spectrum are the Government and municipalities). While I have not seen any reference to it, the FCC is dealing with a “sea change”, and not just a specific spectrum issue. I sense that the LightSquared-GPS issue, of which this Report is part, is a harbinger (pun intended) of things to come.
REPORT SUMMARY
An FAA report leaked to the press concluded that the deployment of the LightSquared broadband communications system will cost the aviation community $70B and add 30 million tons of CO2 to the atmosphere. The Report cites the following reasons for this conclusion:
- Loss of benefits from the delayed NextGen [Next Generation Air Transport System] technologies and procedures
- Loss of existing GPS efficiency benefits
- Loss of existing GPS safety benefits
- Aircraft retrofit costs
The Report goes on to imply that the deployment of LightSquared is counter to the 2010 National Space Policy for the United States of America where “the U.S. must maintain its leadership in the services, provision, and use of global navigation satellite systems.” It stated that, “The international market for U.S. satellite navigation technology could be damaged.” Furthermore, the Report based these findings on the June 30, 2011 LightSquared proposal where LightSquared would begin operations in 2012 on the lower of their two 10 MHz carriers, and at reduced power (from that authorized by their license). Subsequently, LightSquared would begin operations on both carriers in 2014 (The report assumed that operation on both carriers would be at the reduced power levels). In addition to providing specific numbers for the economic benefit for GPS in the aviation community (or detriment of degraded GPS performance), the Report dismisses LightSquared’s proposals for mitigating GPS receiver overload through the use of in-line filters. The FAA essentially states that no such filters exist, and it would take 6-10 years to deploy them even if such filters did exist. The Report offered no conclusions on the impact of the initial LightSquared operation (operating only the single, lower carrier) other than it would impact the use of precision GPS receivers. These receivers operate in essentially the same frequency band as LightSquared so that no filtering would provide adequate mitigation.
The FAA Report was specifically requested by the Executive Office of the President’s Space-Based Positioning, Navigation and Timing Executive Committee’s National Coordination Office (PNT NCO) Director (1) to answer the following questions:
- Summarize and quantify current and future benefits provided by use of GPS-based applications and any cost-benefit analyses
- Summarize and quantify total sunk costs in GPS-based infrastructure (prior years to date) and planned investments going forward
- To the extent possible, qualify, quantify and describe the risks to your agencies GPS-based mission capability, including “lost benefits” if GPS performance were degraded (or lost) due to LightSquared’s signals including the cost to modify (or replace) GPS receiver infrastructure and time frame required to replace that infrastructure.
In response to these questions, the FAA reported that GPS provides “at least $200 million in efficiency benefits” and saves 800 lives over the next 10 years ($5B of public safety benefit). However, they go on to cite that the primary benefit is through the Next Generation Air Transport (NextGen) system of $123B and reducing carbon emissions by 64 million tons by 2030. From Questiny’s perspective the impacts to NextGen, whether real or perceived, are the delay to that program. NextGen is an upgrade to the FAA air traffic control system to use precision GPS data rather than ground-based radars to locate and track aircraft. In the 1980’s the FAA attempted to upgrade the air traffic control system, and while my memory is a bit hazy on the details, I recall that that upgrade was fraught with problems and eventually cancelled. The Joint Planning and Development Office (JDPO) for NextGen estimates that “not expanding the ATC system’s capacity will be costing the U.S. economy $40 billion per year by 2020 because the overburdened system will force significant rationing of flights.” Thus, even a 2 year delay in NextGen could cost $80B to the economy.
(1) The PNT NCO was established in 2006 and its Charter states: “The Executive Committee is the senior-level federal government body established by the President’s Space-Based PNT Policy to advise and coordinate among member Departments and Agencies responsible for the strategic decisions regarding policies, architectures, requirements, and resource allocation for maintaining and improving U.S. space-based PNT infrastructure.”